Markets
Evidence-based analysis of hidden consequences in markets.
Index Fund Reflexivity
“Passive index investing beats active management and is the optimal strategy for most investors.”
Zero-Fee Brokerage Model
“Free trading democratizes markets and helps retail investors build wealth.”
Venture Signaling Cascade
“Top VC backing validates the company and predicts success.”
Liquidity Illusion
“Markets are always liquid enough to exit positions at reasonable prices.”
ZIRP Zombie Company Effect
“Low interest rates stimulate economic growth and help businesses thrive.”
Crypto Regulatory Arbitrage
“Decentralization means crypto can't and shouldn't be regulated by any single jurisdiction.”
SPV/SPAC Misalignment
“SPACs democratize IPO access and let retail investors invest in pre-IPO companies.”
Subscription Fatigue Ceiling
“Subscription models create predictable recurring revenue and better customer relationships.”
Freemium Conversion Ceiling
“Freemium models drive growth by converting free users into paying customers at scale.”
Network Effect Reversal
“Network effects create permanent, defensible competitive moats.”
Unicorn Valuation Gravity
“High valuations attract talent, customers, and signal company strength.”
Buyback Hollowing
“Stock buybacks return value to shareholders and signal management confidence.”
ESG Greenwashing Equilibrium
“ESG investing drives corporate responsibility and environmental improvement.”
Algorithmic Trading Herding
“Algorithmic trading provides market efficiency and better price discovery.”
Private Credit Opacity Risk
“Private credit offers better risk-adjusted returns than public fixed income.”
Gig Economy Race to Bottom
“Gig platforms create flexible work opportunities that benefit workers and consumers.”
SaaS Metric Manipulation
“ARR growth is the best measure of SaaS health and future value.”
Venture Debt Acceleration Trap
“Venture debt extends runway without dilution and is cheaper than equity.”
Creator Economy Power Law
“The creator economy democratizes income and lets everyone monetize their passion.”
Aggregator Theory Endgame
“Aggregators win by owning demand and create lasting value for all participants.”
Late-Stage Private Market Illiquidity
“Staying private longer avoids public market pressure and creates better outcomes.”
AI Hype Cycle Capital Misallocation
“AI is the next platform shift and current investment levels are justified by future returns.”
Buy Now Pay Later Debt Normalization
“BNPL makes purchases more affordable and helps consumers manage their budgets.”
Meme Stock Market Structure Distortion
“Retail investor coordination democratizes markets and levels the playing field.”
Tariff Retaliation Cascade
“Tariffs protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits by making imports more expensive.”